The 41st match of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 will see New Zealand lock horns with Sri Lanka at the M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru on Thursday.
This is a must-win clash for New Zealand’s semi-final hopes after three straight losses. Another defeat would almost certainly eliminate them. Sri Lanka meanwhile are already out of the knockouts race following their loss to Bangladesh.
New Zealand had made an electric start to the tournament, winning their first four games. But losses to India, Australia, South Africa and Pakistan have derailed their campaign. Skipper Kane Williamson’s return from injury was the lone positive from their defeat to Pakistan.
Sri Lanka have had a torrid World Cup apart from the stunning win over England. Their batting has lacked spine while the bowling has delivered occasionally. This contest gives them an opportunity to exit the World Cup on a high.
Expect a thrilling battle with New Zealand’s tournament future on the line. Williamson and the Kiwi veterans know how to handle pressure situations well. But Sri Lanka are unpredictable and have the talents to stun strong opponents, much like against England.
Hopefully another dramatic finish awaits between two talented teams hungrier than ever for World Cup success.
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New Zealand Overview
It has been a perplexing World Cup campaign for New Zealand so far. They seemed destined for the semi-finals after four rousing wins initially over England, Netherlands, Afghanistan and Bangladesh.
But close losses to India and Australia followed by two crushing defeats to South Africa and Pakistan have derailed New Zealand. Now they face a must-win situation to keep their knockout hopes alive against Sri Lanka.
Skipper Kane Williamson’s return from injury with a sublime century against Pakistan is a big plus. Devon Conway found form while Glenn Phillips and Daryl Mitchell have excelled. But the bowling lacks penetration, especially with Ferguson and Henry injured.
New Zealand cannot afford to be over-reliant anymore on just Tim Southee and Trent Boult. The likes of Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi and Adam Milne must step up.
Despite the sudden downturn after an excellent start, this is still a very good New Zealand team. Expect them to play with desperation against Sri Lanka. Their big match temperament and experience should help them handle the pressure well to stay alive.
Sri Lanka Overview
It has been a World Cup to forget so far for Sri Lanka after their stunning win over England. A batting lineup filled with talent has failed to convert starts into big scores.
Pathum Nissanka with two half-centuries has been the lone batting bright spot. But the likes of captain Kusal Mendis, Dhananjaya de Silva and Dasun Shanaka have had underwhelming campaigns.
The bowling too has lacked consistency barring a few spells from Dhananjaya De Silva, Maheesh Theekshana and Dilshan Madushanka. Fielding has been sloppy with several crucial chances grassed.
With semi-final qualification out of reach now, Sri Lanka will be keen to exit the World Cup on a high against New Zealand. Their veterans like Kusal Perera, Angelo Mathews and Dhananjaya must step up to salvage pride.
Sri Lanka have the bowling variety in Mahesh Theeksana and Chamika Karunaratne to limit New Zealand’s powerful batting lineup. But their own batting must stand tall to post 250+ scores and defend them.
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka Starting XI
Expected Starting XI for New Zealand:
- Devon Conway,
- Rachin Ravindra,
- Kane Williamson (c),
- Daryl Mitchell,
- Tom Latham (wk),
- Glenn Phillips,
- Mark Chapman,
- Mitchell Santner,
- Tim Southee,
- Ish Sodhi,
- Trent Boult
Expected Starting XI forSri Lanka:
- Pathum Nissanka,
- Kusal Perera,
- Kusal Mendis ((c)/(wk),
- Sadeera Samarawickrama,
- Charith Asalanka,
- Angelo Mathews,
- Dhananjaya de Silva,
- Maheesh Theekshana,
- Dushmantha Chameera,
- Kasun Rajitha,
- Dilshan Madushanka
Lockie Ferguson is likely to return to boost New Zealand’s pace attack alongside Tim Southee and Trent Boult. Daryl Mitchell’s all-round skills add balance in Jimmy Neesham’s continued absence.
For Sri Lanka, the experienced Dinesh Chandimal should replace Avishka Fernando in the middle-order. Spinner Jeffrey Vandersay may also come in for Asitha Fernando to add more variety.
Both teams will rely on their veteran match-winners to step up in this must-win clash. The key battles will be between Conway and Sri Lanka’s spin duo of Hasaranga-Theekshana plus Southee against Pathum Nissanka.
See the confirmed starting lineups below an hour before the match starts.
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka Head-to-Head
New Zealand and Sri Lanka are well acquainted with each other having clashed 101 times previously in ODI cricket. The Kiwis have a slight historical edge, winning 51 times compared to Sri Lanka’s 41 victories.
But Sri Lanka lead the head-to-head 6-5 in matches at World Cups. At the 2011 World Cup Semi-Final, Sri Lanka thrashed New Zealand by 5 wickets as well as in their first round game by 112 runs.
In the 2007 World Cup Semi-Final too, Sri Lanka won by 81 runs to advance to the Final. Six of the last seven ODI matches between the two sides have been won by the chasing team.
However, New Zealand defeated Sri Lanka 2-0 in a recent ODI series contested in Sri Lanka back in March this year. Also, the kiwis have won their last two word cup meetings in 2015 and 2019..
So while New Zealand have the overall edge in ODI matchups, Sri Lanka have the talent to challenge their favored opponents. Expect another tantalizingly close battle between two well-matched teams.
Weather & Pitch Report
The M. Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru will host this important New Zealand vs Sri Lanka World Cup clash. Unfortunately, the weather forecast looks bleak for matchday with a high chance of rain predicted.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely throughout the day in Bengaluru on Thursday. Up to 20-30 mm of rain is forecast which could mean a shortened or washed out contest.
If play does take place, the pitch in Bengaluru is usually excellent for batting with true bounce and pace. Dew in the evening favors the chasing team.
But the inclement weather forecast puts a dampener on this crucial game. Rain would harm New Zealand more as they badly need a win to stay alive in the tournament.
Hopefully the weather forecasts are wrong and we get an interrupted full match. But the prospects of a result look grim currently with storms predicted. A washout here would leave New Zealand’s semi-final fate out of their hands.
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka Prediction
It is impossible to make an accurate prediction for this match given the extremely high chance of rain in the forecast.
If the match is shortened significantly or washed out, it harms New Zealand’s semi-final hopes greatly. Therefore, the Kiwis will pray the weather can clear up to allow a contest.
If a full 100 overs match somehow takes place, New Zealand should start as favorites based on their overall balanced team and need for victory. Their potent batting gives them an advantage.
But Sri Lanka are unpredictable and could easily stun the Kiwis if their key players like Hasaranga, Theekshana and Nissanka shine. Their nothing to lose approach may suit a rain-curtailed game.
Realistically though, it is tough to see any result being possible if the weather forecast proves accurate. A washed out match would leave New Zealand’s fate out of their own hands heading into the final week of the World Cup.
Let’s hope the Bengaluru skies relent and allow a cracking contest between two passionate cricketing nations.
New Zealand vs. Sri Lanka Betting Tips
With rain predicted, betting on the match to be a washout or no result could be profitable.
If a full game happens, Kane Williamson, Devon Conway and Glenn Phillips would be good batting picks. The key bowlers to back would be Tim Southee and Wanindu Hasaranga.
Betting on match sixes or milestones is very risky with rain around.
Consider betting on a rain-shortened match if that market is available. Given the forecast, betting markets will be severely limited unfortunately. It may be wisest to avoid betting on this match altogether and wait for a contest with a better weather report. For punters who do bet, backing the match to be abandoned due to rain seems the safest option.
Sadly with the poor Bengaluru weather forecast, there is low betting value and unpredictability around this crucial New Zealand vs Sri Lanka match. Keep stakes small or avoid betting altogether.
Bet on New Zealand to win match at 1xBet at odds 1.33>>
If you want to check out our other Cricket World Cup match predictions, you can find them on our site. In the meantime, you can check out how to bet on the Cricket World Cup.
